Some Bitcoin indicators show similarities between the course of prices after the all-time high and the current trend. This suggests that there will be a final push up before there is a major decline.
Is Bitcoin crashing brutally again?
As explained by a CryptoQuant analyst, there seems to be a lot of similarities between the Bitcoin indicators of the time after the all-time high (ATH) and now.
Above all, three metrics are important here. The first is the exchange reserve, which shows the amount of BTC currently held in central exchange wallets.
Here you can see how the value of this indicator has changed over the past year:
Looking at the graph above, there seems to be a similarity between the two time periods. In both cases, prices fell and foreign exchange reserves also fell.
Next is the estimated leverage ratio. This is an indicator that shows how much leverage is used by traders on average. It is calculated by dividing open interest by foreign exchange reserves.
Here, too, a similarity can be seen, because the indicator seems to have declined sharply both in the present and in the period after the all-time high.
Finally, there is the Spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which is calculated from the ratio between the realized value (in USD) and the value of creating an output.
Do investors sell Bitcoin at a loss?
Simply put, the indicator shows whether Bitcoin wallets sell their coins at a profit or loss. The chart below shows the trends for this metric.
It looks like the value of the SOPR fell below 1 in both periods. Such a value suggests that investors sold BTC at a loss (while values above 1 would mean the opposite).
If the current trend really resembles the trend after the all-time high, which these indicators indicate, then the BTC price may soon rise again and reach a local peak. And just like last time, there could be a sharp drop after that, bringing the price to a lower level. So this uptrend could turn out to be the last uptrend – at least for a while.
Currently (time of this article) the Bitcoin price is moving around $45,3 k, which is a decrease of almost 10% in the last 7 days. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has lost 1% in value.
Here is a chart showing the evolution of the Bitcoin price over the past three months:
Text credits: Newsbtc
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