While many analysts and traders are at odds over whether Bitcoin’s bull run has already ended, top analyst “PlanB” is back. The inventor of the legendary Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow model now confirms: according to the S2FX forecast model, Bitcoin is still on its way to the $288,000 mark.

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Crypto Bull-Run is undamaged

For his more than 530,000 Twitter followers, the pseudonymous crypto analyst PlanB is currently commenting on what development can be expected in Bitcoin after the recent decline. According to the Dutchman, the stock-to-flow X model is still intact-despite the recent Bitcoin price reset.

According to the industry observer, the bull run is not a “straight line up”. He emphasizes that crashes of 35% in a bull market are not only possible, but even likely. PlanB:

“New point: May closing $37,341.. -35% .. we knew Bitcoin wouldn’t go up in a straight line, and multiple -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market. It’s starting to look like 2013. S2F (X) model intact.“

By “S2F (X) model intact” is meant the following: The Bitcoin price forecast model sees Bitcoin reach either $100,000 (according to S2F) or $288,000 (according to S2FX) this cycle (sometime through 2024). After Bitcoin’s most recent crash, the question was to what extent the price predictions of the model have now lost their validity. According to PlanB, the forecast is still correct.

Bitcoin-Stock-To-Flow: What the Critics Say

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-flow model is likely to be the most cited crypto metric. However, she also has many critics.

Background Stock-To-Flow: The Bitcoin stock-To – flow model is derived from precious metals and commodities analysis and suggests that the price of a commodity can be predicted by the production volume of the commodity (flow) relative to the stock (stock). Specialists often point to the correlation between inventory and flow (S/F) and precious metal prices. However, these are selected examples. According to critics, the explanation of why this correlation exists is lacking. You can observe a correlation without a theory of causality, for many, a pseudo-scientific approach.

The following examples are often cited by critics to substantiate that the model may be flawed:

  • After five more halving (20 years), the S/F charts project that Bitcoin would be worth much more than all the fortune on planet Earth.
  • Some assets have a static/infinite, or even negative, Stock-to-Flow value. Land, for example, is limited and no new land is produced (200 million square miles in stock/ 0 river = infinite S/F).
  • At some point Bitcoin will actually be deflationary. In the case, the loss of BTC per year exceeds the annual mining production. This leads to a negative stock-to-flow value. What would be the price? Also negative?

It is clear that the S / F model is vulnerable and may be limited in its ability to predict Bitcoin prices. In the past, however, it was usually right – even if this is not an indication of future developments.

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