It happened: the Bitcoin price broke through the psychologically enormously important support zone at $ 30,000 down to as low as $ 28,800 yesterday trading day. But in this area, the price has received extremely strong support and has climbed back above the $ 30,000 mark within a few hours.
In the following hours, BTC / USD was able to continue its recovery, trading in the range of $ 34,000 at the time of publication. Against the low point, BTC / USD has already gained more than 18 percent in value.
Investors of Bitcoin are now asking themselves whether it is a short-term recovery after the price slide and with even lower prices to be expected or whether BTC / USD has now found its ground and a turnaround with significantly higher prices is imminent.
If you just look at the technical indicators, they are still mostly bearish.
These signs in Bitcoin price are bearish
- Death Cross: How Kryptoszene.de as early as June 17, the so-called Death Cross can now be seen on the Bitcoin chart. This event occurs when the line for the price average of the past 50 days crosses the line for the average of the past 200 days from top to bottom. Death Cross is considered a bearish indicator in technical analysis. However, the Death Cross is to be regarded with some caution. Thus, the Bitcoin history shows some examples in which a stronger and longer lasting price correction took place on this event, but there are also opposing developments. In some cases, the bullish Golden Cross followed shortly after the Death Cross, where the 50-day line again crosses the 200-day line from the bottom up.
- EMA Ribbons: The exponential price average for different time periods such as 20 days, 30 days, 40 days, etc. can be represented in the form of the EMA Ribbons using chart analysis tools such as Tradingview. If the current Bitcoin price is below these bands, this is usually a bearish indicator. On the 1-hour chart, BTC / USD has currently managed to climb above the EMA ribbons at around $ 32,000, creating a bullish signal. However, it is different on the 4-hour candles and the day candles. Here Bitcoin is still below the bands and thus in bearish terrain. However, the most important for long-term price development are the EMA bands on the weekly candles. And here the Bitcoin price is currently struggling not to fall below the last band. Should BTC/USD close with a weekly candle below, this would be another signal for the bear’s upper hand.
- 1 Week EMA: Another important technical indicator is the 21-week exponential average of the Bitcoin price. In the 2017/2018 bull market, this line was an extremely important support zone for BTC on its way to the then all-time high of just under $ 20,000. Over the course of its parabolic ascents, BTC/USD has tested this support about seven to eight times without even completing a week’s candle below it. Another image in the current cycle. In May, BTC / USD fell below this important line at around $ 45,000 and has not managed to reach it again since. Currently, the average value of the past 21 weeks is around $ 42,000. If Bitcoin wants to continue the bull market, the price must necessarily climb back above this line.
The indicators mentioned give the overall impression that the bears are currently setting the pace on the crypto market. But there is a legendary price chart that could herald an imminent turnaround.
YouTuber MMCrypto was wrong
The famous writer and analyst Richard Wyckoff has developed highly regarded course models to this day. This includes the so-called Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. This model first describes a strong price correction followed by a phase of consolidation and finally a turnaround with strong price increases.
That this scenario could occur for the Bitcoin price has Kryptoszene.de already reported on June 10. At the same time, the then article questioned the theory of the well-known crypto influencer MMCrypto that the so-called spring, the low point of the price model, has already been reached.
With yesterday’s price slide to $ 28,800, it became clear that MMCrypto was actually wrong when he announced the spring event for the Bitcoin price in a video at around $ 31,000.
Meanwhile, MMCrypto has admitted its mistake and now also rated yesterday’s low point at 28.800 dollars as a real “spring” of the Wyckoff model. He assumes that the Bitcoin price has now found its ground and higher prices can soon be achieved.
Does BTC / USD continue to follow exactly the Wyckoff model?
In fact, it is amazing what strong parallels the price development of BTC/USD shows in recent weeks with the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern.
Following the model, BTC reached PS (Prelimanary Support) in Phase A in mid-May. After an initial strong selling phase, price initially finds support and can stop the downtrend. The trading volume is increasing again.
This is followed by the point SC (selling climax), at which the spread expansion and selling pressure reaches a peak. Investors sell their assets in large quantities and sometimes in panic, which leads the price down in strong volatility. But then follows a fast countermovement in which new buyers use the low prices to get started and quickly let the prices rise again.
In the next step AR (automatic rally), prices continue to rise because the strong selling pressure has initially subsided and new buyers want to continue to take advantage of the low prices.
But then follows ST (secondary test) in which the price falls sharply again and tests support in low price regions. However, as a rule, at this stage the course does not fall quite as low as at SC.
Phase B of the Wyckoff model is characterized by a sideways movement with many small ups and abs in which the resistance zones and support areas are tested several times. This zone is relatively long and corresponds to the price development of Bitcoin in recent weeks.
However, with yesterday’s correction to $ 28,800, BTC/USD may now have already reached Phase C and the so-called” spring ” has taken place. A low below the low of SC.
Further correction according to Wyckoff likely
But what does that mean? Will the Bitcoin price rise explosively now?
The answer is rather not (yet). According to the Wyckoff model, a retest of the previous support level is necessary before the turnaround with sharply rising prices takes place in phase D and E. Accordingly, investors must expect that the prices could fall another time in the area of 30.000 dollars. However, the previous low of $ 28,800 should no longer be reached. Otherwise the Wyckoff model would no longer be valid.