On June 20, the well-known trader PlanB, who develops the much-cited stock-to-flow forecast model for the Bitcoin price, posted a tweet. In it, he announced that he expects a minimum price of $ 47,000 for BTC/USD for August 2021. This is his “worst-case scenario”. However, at that point, the Bitcoin price was only trading around $ 35,000, so its price target has assumed growth of at least $ 12,000, or around 35 percent. In addition, PlanB expected BTC to show further weakness in June and possibly July before the price rises again.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down.
There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep> 43K, Oct & gt; 63K, Nov & gt;98K, Dec>135K pic.twitter.com/hDONOVgxH1
– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
Price target of $ 47,000: BTC model hits exactly
Now PlanB’s forecast has been exactly fulfilled. Initially, Bitcoin fell even below $ 30,000 in July before a massive turnaround has taken place in recent weeks. On yesterday’s trading day, Bitcoin even cracked the $ 48,000 mark again, more than reaching PlanB’s forecast.
PlanB had to put up with some nasty comments on his tweet. Other users, on the other hand, praised the courage to make such a positive price forecast at a time of fierce Bitcoin correction. Here is a selection of the comments on PlanB’s tweet:
“Why is September below August? That doesn’t seem to make sense with this model“
“Bravo…Es is one thing to be bullish in a terrible market, but to set up a worst-case scenario that looks better than even the “foolish” optimists need courage. I hope you are right, leaving a visible prediction for posterity is brave.“
“Too high, we reach 6.5 to 18k. Everyone who is in the market himself can only look up. But in doing so, they ignore the fact that historical data shows a 70-90 percent correction after EACH increase. Fight, this is the fight against the current 100% probability. It’s different this time, isn’t it?“
“Their model comparing BTC to scarcity may be right in the long run, but their stubbornness to peak before the end of the year is delusional. We will have somewhere 100,000 BTC in the next 4-8 years, but this run is probably over. On Chain can’t predict shit, look Willy Woo … always wrong“
PlanB was right about his critics. He was now celebrated on Twitter for his exact prediction.
✅ Aug > $47K https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 13, 2021
666K followers, thank you all🙏
To keep me focused on what provides most value for you .. please tell me what is the main reason you follow me? pic.twitter.com/Bkj8yYDshI
– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 14, 2021
On the congratulations from the Twitter community, PlanB received some comments:
“My modest financial life for the next 5 years depends on your models. Selling near peak value this cycle is the next focus for me. And then buy back at the next cycle low. They are the most important reason why I understood and bought BTC.“
“Main reason for following = current BTC modeling of @ $ 100 trillion … Thanks for all your hard work for the community:)”
“You celebrate 666? Well, the reason I decided to follow them was the S2F model. But the reason I don’t follow you now is because of anti-Christian propaganda.“
“Followed because of the models. Were here because of their “European view” as Dutch. Many financial terminology is in English and focuses on U.S. policy. But they have made it clear that the ECB / EU policy is really similar and possibly worse.“
Bitcoin price in September: Small Correction Expected
Currently, however, the Bitcoin price is showing a slight weakness and has fallen back to around $ 46,000 at the time of publication. Kryptoszene.de has already pointed out several times that there is massive resistance in the current price regions, which is difficult to overcome for BTC/USD.
PlanB also expects a slight correction for BTC in the short term. Thus, its minimum price for the following month of September is at least $ 43,000, which is $ 4,000 below the price target for August.
However, the analyst assumes that it will only be about a short-term weakening of the market. September is often historically a weak month for the crypto market. For example, in September last year, BTC recorded a decline of 7,5 percent. In September 2019, there was even a decline of 13.5 percent, while the decline in September 2018 was 5.5 percent.
While September is considered a weak month, the forecast for October, on the other hand, looks much rosier, if you only refer to the historical data of the BTC chart.
Next BTC Bull Run in October 2021?
Thus, Bitcoin grew in October 2020 and about 28 percent. At the same time, this triggered the great bull cycle, which led the BTC price to new records of $ 65,000 by May 2021. Growth of more than 10 percent was also recorded in October 2019.
PlanB’s forecast for October 2021 is correspondingly positive. The analyst expects a minimum price for BTC / USD of $ 63,000. Should BTC fall to the aforementioned $ 43,000 in September, it would represent an explosive increase of $ 20,000, or more than 45 percent, for October. At least historical price developments could prove PlanB’s optimism right.
The analyst also expects that October 2021 will mark the beginning of another bull cycle for the Bitcoin, as it did last year. PlanB already expects a further increase to at least $ 98,000 in November 2021. If the forecast comes in, that would more than double the current price level of BTC/USD. In addition, the Bitcoin price then comes extremely close to PlanB’s much-quoted $ 100,000 minimum price target for 2021.
PlanB: BTC between 135,000 and 450,000 dollars in December
If it goes to PlanB, the magic 100.000 dollar mark will then fall at the latest in December 2021. And not only that: PlanB expects the six-figure hurdle to be far exceeded in the last month of the year. So he predicts a minimum price of $ 135,000 for December.
Should this bullish scenario materialize, PlanB’s stock-to-flow model would remain intact. Investors who now buy Bitcoin for around $ 46,000 can look forward to a return of almost 200 percent in this case.
And beware: the aforementioned $ 135,000 is PlanB’s pessimistic price target. His bullish price target foresees much higher prices for the end of 2021. He has already announced this in a tweet in June 2021.
Wait until you see my base case and best case scenarios! OK, a hint: best case Dec $ 450K 😎
– PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
An incredible $ 450,000 for the Bitcoin is what PlanB believes is possible in its most bullish forecast model until the end of the year. That would be an incredible 10-fold increase over the current Bitcoin price. Should this prediction actually materialize, trading Bitcoin could generate a fortune in the next few months.
But beware: Even if PlanB was right with its latest price forecast for August 2021, this does not mean that its forecasts for the next few months will also be fulfilled. He himself will have to be measured by his bullish forecasts on Twitter. You may be curious.