After Elon Musk’s yesterday Tweets about Bitcoin it went south again for the cryptocurrency number 1. BTC has lost about 5% in the last 24 hours – and the analyst of a large financial company believes further, massive losses are possible.

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Does Bitcoin Crash Below $30k?

Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at US financial giant Fidelity Investments. On Twitter, he comments in an analysis that it could go much further down for the Bitcoin price.

To support his thesis, Timmer cites the so-called Elliot wave theory. This is a technical analysis method that predicts price fluctuations.


“Looking at the chart pattern since the recent peak of $ 64,870, I can’t help but notice that a 5-wave decline could develop as if from the textbook…”

That means: Bitcoin, in the worst case scenario, could shed much of the gains made in recent months. Because:

“If wave 5 = wave 1, it projects to $23,076 as the final low. If it’s just 0.618 x wave 1, we could only fall slightly below the current low and hit the bottom at $29,872. So for me this is the range of results for a possible 5th wave sequence. ”

While $23,076 as the final low sounds sobering, Timmer’s chart analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s worst – case low will be closer to $30,000 than $23,000. After all.

“…my guess is that the low point is below according to the head-shoulder price target. The distance from the head to the neck line is $ 17,000, which is equivalent to $ 30,000 measured from the neck line.”

However, the price decline is of course not set in stone. According to Timmer, Bitcoin is already back in the green once it manages to move above $ 41,000. A” sustained rally above $41,000 ” would need BTC to move out of bearish territory.

Bitcoin famous price prediction model is invalid?

Many investors are also currently looking to Bitcoin’s Stock-To-Flow price prediction model to speculate on the future direction of the # 1 cryptocurrency. After Bitcoin’s recent crash, the question is to what extent the stock-to-flow model is still valid.

The inventor of the model says: Bitcoin’s Stock-To-Flow model is intact and Bitcoin is on its way to a valuation of $288,000. However, in a new survey, he also wants his followers to know if they still believe that the S2F model is valid.

He asks:

“So will the stock-to-flow model break, or will this prove to be an excellent buy signal?“

For the more than 30,000 participants in the survey, a clear case: 53.3% consider the model intact and see the price reset as an “excellent buy signal”. Only 17.6% expect the model to lose its validity.

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